Performance of internal Covariance Estimators for Cosmic Shear Correlation Functions

Data re-sampling methods such as the delete-one jackknife are a common tool for estimating the covariance of large scale structure probes. In this paper we investigate the concepts of internal covariance estimation in the context of cosmic shear two-point statistics. We demonstrate how to use log-normal simulations of the convergence field and the corresponding shear field to carry out realistic tests of internal covariance estimators and find that most estimators such as jackknife or sub-sample covariance can reach a satisfactory compromise between bias and variance of the estimated covariance. In a forecast for the complete, 5-year DES survey we show that internally estimated covariance matrices can provide a large fraction of the true uncertainties on cosmological parameters in a 2D cosmic shear analysis. The volume inside contours of constant likelihood in the $\Omega_m$-$\sigma_8$ plane as measured with internally estimated covariance matrices is on average $\gtrsim 85\%$ of the volume derived from the true covariance matrix. The uncertainty on the parameter combination $\Sigma_8 \sim \sigma_8 \Omega_m^{0.5}$ derived from internally estimated covariances is $\sim 90\%$ of the true uncertainty.Comment: submitted to mnra

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: redshift distributions of the weak-lensing source galaxies

We describe the derivation and validation of redshift distribution estimates and their uncertainties for the populations of galaxies used as weak-lensing sources in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 cosmological analyses. The Bayesian Photometric Redshift (BPZ) code is used to assign galaxies to four redshift bins between z ≈ 0.2 and ≈1.3, and to produce initial estimates of the lensing-weighted redshift distributions n^i_(PZ)(z)∝dn^i/dz for members of bin i. Accurate determination of cosmological parameters depends critically on knowledge of n^i, but is insensitive to bin assignments or redshift errors for individual galaxies. The cosmological analyses allow for shifts n^i(z)=n^i_(PZ)(z−Δz^i) to correct the mean redshift of n^i(z) for biases in n^i_(PZ). The Δz^i are constrained by comparison of independently estimated 30-band photometric redshifts of galaxies in the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) field to BPZ estimates made from the DES griz fluxes, for a sample matched in fluxes, pre-seeing size, and lensing weight to the DES weak-lensing sources. In companion papers, the Δziof the three lowest redshift bins are further constrained by the angular clustering of the source galaxies around red galaxies with secure photometric redshifts at 0.15 < z < 0.9. This paper details the BPZ and COSMOS procedures, and demonstrates that the cosmological inference is insensitive to details of the n^i(z) beyond the choice of Δzi. The clustering and COSMOS validation methods produce consistent estimates of Δz^i in the bins where both can be applied, with combined uncertainties of σΔ_(z^i_ = 0.015,0.013,0.011, and 0.022 in the four bins. Repeating the photo-z procedure instead using the Directional Neighbourhood Fitting algorithm, or using the n^i(z) estimated from the matched sample in COSMOS, yields no discernible difference in cosmological inferences

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Multi-Probe Methodology and Simulated Likelihood Analyses

We present the methodology for and detail the implementation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 3x2pt DES Year 1 (Y1) analysis, which combines configuration-space two-point statistics from three different cosmological probes: cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, using data from the first year of DES observations. We have developed two independent modeling pipelines and describe the code validation process. We derive expressions for analytical real-space multi-probe covariances, and describe their validation with numerical simulations. We stress-test the inference pipelines in simulated likelihood analyses that vary 6-7 cosmology parameters plus 20 nuisance parameters and precisely resemble the analysis to be presented in the DES 3x2pt analysis paper, using a variety of simulated input data vectors with varying assumptions. We find that any disagreement between pipelines leads to changes in assigned likelihood Δχ^2 ≤ 0.045 with respect to the statistical error of the DES Y1 data vector. We also find that angular binning and survey mask do not impact our analytic covariance at a significant level. We determine lower bounds on scales used for analysis of galaxy clustering (8 Mpc h^(−1)) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (12 Mpc h^(−1)) such that the impact of modeling uncertainties in the non-linear regime is well below statistical errors, and show that our analysis choices are robust against a variety of systematics. These tests demonstrate that we have a robust analysis pipeline that yields unbiased cosmological parameter inferences for the flagship 3x2pt DES Y1 analysis. We emphasize that the level of independent code development and subsequent code comparison as demonstrated in this paper is necessary to produce credible constraints from increasingly complex multi-probe analyses of current data

Deep SOAR follow-up photometry of two Milky Way outer-halo companions discovered with Dark Energy Survey

We report the discovery of a new star cluster, DES 3, in the constellation of Indus, and deeper observations of the previously identified satellite DES J0222.7−5217 (Eridanus III). DES 3 was detected as a stellar overdensity in first-year Dark Energy Survey data, and confirmed with deeper photometry from the 4.1-m Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope. The new system was detected with a relatively high significance and appears in the DES images as a compact concentration of faint blue point sources. We determine that DES 3 is located at a heliocentric distance of ≃76.2 kpc and it is dominated by an old (≃9.8 Gyr) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] ≃ −1.84) population. While the age and metallicity values of DES 3 are comparable to typical globular clusters (objects with a high stellar density, stellar mass of ∼10^5 M⊙ and luminosity M_V ∼ −7.3), its half-light radius (r_h ∼ 6.87 pc) and luminosity (M_V ∼ −1.7) are more indicative of faint star cluster. Based on the angular size, DES 3, with a value of r_h ∼ 0.”31, is among the smallest faint star clusters known to date. Furthermore, using deeper imaging of DES J0222.7−5217 taken with the SOAR telescope, we update structural parameters and perform the first isochrone modelling. Our analysis yields the first age (≃12.6 Gyr) and metallicity ([Fe/H] ≃ −2.01) estimates for this object. The half-light radius (r_h ≃ 11.24 pc) and luminosity (M_V ≃ −2.4) of DES J0222.7−5217 suggest that it is likely a faint star cluster. The discovery of DES 3 indicates that the census of stellar systems in the Milky Way is still far from complete, and demonstrates the power of modern wide-field imaging surveys to improve our knowledge of the Galaxy’s satellite population

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Weak Lensing Shape Catalogues

We present two galaxy shape catalogues from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data set, covering 1500 deg^2 with a median redshift of 0.59. The catalogues cover two main fields: Stripe 82, and an area overlapping the South Pole Telescope survey region. We describe our data analysis process and in particular our shape measurement using two independent shear measurement pipelines, METACALIBRATION and IM3SHAPE. The METACALIBRATION catalogue uses a Gaussian model with an innovative internal calibration scheme, and was applied to riz bands, yielding 34.8M objects. The IM3SHAPE catalogue uses a maximum-likelihood bulge/disc model calibrated using simulations, and was applied to r-band data, yielding 21.9M objects. Both catalogues pass a suite of null tests that demonstrate their fitness for use in weak lensing science. We estimate the 1σ uncertainties in multiplicative shear calibration to be 0.013 and 0.025 for the METACALIBRATION and IM3SHAPE catalogues, respectively

Density split statistics: Joint model of counts and lensing in cells

We present density split statistics, a framework that studies lensing and counts-in-cells as a function of foreground galaxy density, thereby providing a large-scale measurement of both 2-point and 3-point statistics. Our method extends our earlier work on trough lensing and is summarized as follows: given a foreground (low redshift) population of galaxies, we divide the sky into subareas of equal size but distinct galaxy density. We then measure lensing around uniformly spaced points separately in each of these subareas, as well as counts-in-cells statistics (CiC). The lensing signals trace the matter density contrast around regions of fixed galaxy density. Through the CiC measurements this can be related to the density profile around regions of fixed matter density. Together, these measurements constitute a powerful probe of cosmology, the skewness of the density field and the connection of galaxies and matter. In this paper we show how to model both the density split lensing signal and CiC from basic ingredients: a non-linear power spectrum, clustering hierarchy coefficients from perturbation theory and a parametric model for galaxy bias and shot-noise. Using N-body simulations, we demonstrate that this model is sufficiently accurate for a cosmological analysis on year 1 data from the Dark Energy Survey

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 10^3 Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1), consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST, and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs

Galaxies in X-ray selected clusters and groups in Dark Energy Survey data – II. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of the red-sequence galaxy luminosity function

Using ∼100 X-ray selected clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data, we constrain the luminosity function (LF) of cluster red-sequence galaxies as a function of redshift. This is the first homogeneous optical/X-ray sample large enough to constrain the evolution of the LF simultaneously in redshift (0.1 < z < 1.05) and cluster mass (⁠13.5 ≤ log_(10)(M_(200crit)) ∼ <15.0⁠). We pay particular attention to completeness issues and the detection limit of the galaxy sample. We then apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to fit the cluster galaxy LFs via a Schechter function, including its characteristic break (m*) to a faint end power-law slope (α). Our method enables us to avoid known issues in similar analyses based on stacking or binning the clusters. We find weak and statistically insignificant (∼1.9σ) evolution in the faint end slope α versus redshift. We also find no dependence in α or m* with the X-ray inferred cluster masses. However, the amplitude of the LF as a function of cluster mass is constrained to ∼20 per cent precision. As a by-product of our algorithm, we utilize the correlation between the LF and cluster mass to provide an improved estimate of the individual cluster masses as well as the scatter in true mass given the X-ray inferred masses. This technique can be applied to a larger sample of X-ray or optically selected clusters from the Dark Energy Survey, significantly improving the sensitivity of the analysis

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cross-Correlation Redshifts in the DES -- Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Redshift Distributions

We present the calibration of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) weak lensing source galaxy redshift distributions from clustering measurements. By cross-correlating the positions of source galaxies with luminous red galaxies selected by the redMaGiC algorithm we measure the redshift distributions of the source galaxies as placed into different tomographic bins. These measurements constrain any such shifts to an accuracy of ∼0.02 and can be computed even when the clustering measurements do not span the full redshift range. The highest-redshift source bin is not constrained by the clustering measurements because of the minimal redshift overlap with the redMaGiC galaxies. We compare our constraints with those obtained from COSMOS 30-band photometry and find that our two very different methods produce consistent constraints